http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/ukraine-rejects-europe-blessing-disguise-9508?page=1
E. Wayne Merry
December 6, 2013
Armenia did not sign up at Vilnius, but what Putin did with his Armenian counterpart was merely to rip off the veil of sovereignty which President Serzh Sargsyan and his predecessors had long since abandoned in practice. The Armenian ruling elite had alternatives, especially with Turkey, but chose not to exercise them, and deliberately painted their country into a corner with Russia, believing they could maneuver their patron at will. In fact, any time Moscow wanted to call the bluff, Armenia’s dependency would stand naked to the world.
Why is Moscow now pursuing an economic Eurasian Union? In brief, the Russian derzhava is turning inward on itself, in part for domestic reasons but more broadly because of its inability to compete (on different indices) with the European West, the Chinese East, or the Islamic South. The Kremlin seeks to build a redoubt of the Eurasian heartland, but has waited far too long to do so effectively. If Putin really wanted to make his Eurasian project a going concern, he should have started in earnest five to seven years ago. Today, Moscow’s efforts to shore up segments of its near abroad are a manifestation of Russian weakness, not strength.
For Ukraine, the consequences of failure at Vilnius are real, but the opportunity costs are not as great as some imagine. The government in Kiev has neither the inclination nor the ability to actually fulfill the requirements of association status with the European Union. It was precisely this systemic shortcoming which caused Ukraine’s rulers to back away from signing. If they would not take the cosmetic measures needed for the agreement, they certainly could not introduce the much deeper reforms in their economy and political system to benefit from it.
In Europe, behind the dolorous public statements about Kiev’s absence at the Vilnius signing ceremony, one hears notable sighs of relief. The European project is up to its eyeballs in problems and burdens, with renewed bailouts for Greece and Portugal looming. The phrase "Ukraine fatigue” is common parlance in Berlin, Paris, and other EU capitals. Viktor Yanukovych has hardly served his country’s best interests, but he likely did the European Union a favor by pushing Ukraine back in the European queue for several years to come.
For the United States, a cohesive and viable European Union is vastly more important than Ukraine, by logarithmic orders of magnitude. Thus, Kiev’s failure to attach itself to the EU may be in our interest as well. Washington has tried many times to help Ukraine since the latter’s independence, only to find that the prevailing political culture of the country remains its own worst enemy. Those of us with long memories recall that Soviet Ukraine was always the most "Soviet” of the Soviet republics. Ukraine may need more than a single generation to qualify even for Europe’s back porch. It is poor policy for Washington to push Brussels and Kiev to premature association, despite our emotive tendency to perceive Ukraine as more evolved than it is.
The Ukrainian body politic is already reacting, vigorously, to the egregious behavior of its national leadership in Kiev. With luck, heads will roll, but that is up to the Ukrainians. It will be an uphill battle against deeply entrenched interests. In time, Ukraine will have another crack at association status with Europe, but that is merely an echo of the struggle at home for the identity and future of the country.
E. Wayne Merry is Senior Fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
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