http://nsnbc.me/2014/02/21/german-gold-repatriation-heavy-metal-hot-air/
Christof Lehmann (nsnbc) : Carl-Ludvig Thiele, a member of the board of Germany’s Federal Bank (BuBa), rejects claims about problems with the repatriation of Germany’s gold. Peter Boehringer, the founder of the "Repatriate our Gold” campaign rebukes Thiele, saying the BuBa hasn’t a shred of evidence, no bar numbers, not even an auditor’s name. Is Germany’s gold Heavy Metal or is it Hot Air? The question remains unanswered, but we can use Occam’s Razor to find a plausible explanation.
In an interview, published in the German Handelsblatt, BuBa spokesman Carl-Ludvig Thiele, states that half of Germany’s gold reserves will be stored in Germany by 2020. Handelsblatt points out that Thiele, initially promised the German Federal Parliament (Bundestag), that he would transfer a total of 150 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt, Germany by 2015. Later, however, Thiele extended the time frame to 2020 and increased the amount to 300 tonnes. Handelsblatt asks Thiele, what time frame he is looking at now, and Thiele responds:
The plans are not contradictory. We specified our initial target in October 2012. In January 2013, we then presented a new gold storage plan and specified a new target that is considerably higher than the first. Instead of only 150 tonnes, we are now transferring 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Germany.
Thiele stressed that the Buba now finds itself bound to the new plan and adds that the time period has not yet passed, and that "we shall wait and see. We are on the right track in any case”. Asked whether his initial promise to the German Federal Parliament was overly ambitions, Thiele replies:
It is not a question of "returning”. The gold is being transferred to Germany for the first time. Until 1998, only 2% of our gold, or thereabouts, was stored in Germany. In the first year, we transported five tonnes from New York. This year, we will transfer 30 to 50 tonnes, or perhaps even more, from New York to Frankfurt. And there is still next year to come.
Asked whether the initial target of 150 tonnes is still attainable, the BuBa spokesman replied:
Since we are in the midst of an ongoing process, I would like you to ask me the question again in two years’ time. In any case, we will store half of the German gold reserves in Germany by 2020 at the latest.
Handelsblatt then asks Thiele about "these rumors that either the gold in New York is no longer there” or that the BuBa does not have unrestricted access to it, and why the Buba hasn’t called in auditors or other externals to oversee the transfer in response to such rumors.
Thiele responds to the question, finding it "astounding” that Handelsblatt "pays any attention to such absurd rumors”, and assures us that:
I was in New York myself in June 2012 with the colleagues responsible for managing the gold reserves and saw for myself how our money is stored in the vault there. The Americans have never stonewalled or hindered us in any way. On the contrary, their cooperation has been most constructive in every respect. Our internal audit team was present last year during the on-site removal of gold bars and closely monitored everything. The smelting process is also being monitored by independent experts. (emphasis added)
Photo: Friedrich Böhringer
Photo: Friedrich Böhringer
Or Hot Air? The "In Gold We Trust” website published a response by Peter Boehringer, the founder of the "Repatriate our Gold” campaign.
Boehringer points out that Thiele did not give a shred of evidence in his statements/allegations, stressing that this time, Thiele mentions an "audit team” and "his own observations” on site in the Fed vault. Boehringer stressed that all of Thiele’s statements would be very easy to prove. Boehringer adds:
But no single audit report is being published, we still do not know any single bar number not even of now-melted-and-recast bars, we do not even know ANY single NAME of an internal or external auditor. No one obviously is willing to give a signature under any of Mr Thiele´s unproven claims! No single photo or video footage of any US bars now in Germany as claimed by BuBa.
Boehringer rebukes Thiele’s rebuttal, calling Thiele’s statement absurd and business as usual from BuBa’s side, adding:
We have been experiencing this type of reaction & "non-transparency” for many years now! Clearly arrogant and inadequate and (in my opinion based on applicable German auditing laws) ILLEGAL behavior of BuBa´s! We need a full disclosure of all bar lists & transactions of gold material from/to BuBa vaults going back to at least 1999. And a valid signature by a non-anonymous reputed external auditor under a physical audit report re of all of BuBa´s gold material abroad as well as in Frankfurt. In addition to a valid confirmation that no material is currently being leased out by either BuBa itself or by its "storing partner banks”.
Occam’s Razor. Maybe the easiest way to cut through the labyrinth of claims and counterclaims about Germany’s gold and its repatriation is to use the good, old "Occam’s Razor”. Use the simplest theory which explains all of the available evidence until it can be substituted with a theory that has greater explanatory power.
Thiele and Heavy Metal? Thiele provides a lot of explanations, but does not provide any other evidence for them, other than his claims and his reputation. Ad Hominim arguments, however, are logical fallacies, even if the person is characterized positively. What speaks for Thiele is that the absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence for the absence of the object.
Boehringer and Hot Air? Boehringer, on the other hand, does not offer any other explanation than the one that the BuBa and Thiele have no evidence to back up their claim, interpreting the absence of evidence as, at the very least, indicative of the absence of the object.
Conclusion! Neither Thiele nore Boehringer allow us to determine whether Germany’s gold is Heavy Metal or Hot Air. It is, however, not Boehringer but the BuBa that that the possibility and burden to provide proof, and as Boehringer points out, it would be an easy thing to do. Until the BuBa has provided evidence for the existence of the Gold, the theory that best accounts for all of the available evidence and has the greatest explanatory power is Boehringer’s Hot Air.
On an entirely different note: Was Thiele’s statement "I saw myself how our money is stored there in the vault” a Freudian slip, or was it just an honest mistake and he wanted to say "our gold"?
Ch/L - nsnbc 21.02.2014
Note: Thank’s to German Financial Journalist Lars Schall for pointing me towards the information.
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